Throughout NFL history, teams that don’t have top quarterbacks seldom win the Super Bowl. That is why so many teams take huge swings on unproven QBs in the draft, often giving up large numbers of draft picks and committing millions of future dollars just to have the chance to get lucky. More often than not, this strategy fails miserably.
Of the eight billion people on the planet, there are only about 10 who are considered great quarterbacks in today’s NFL (less than a third of the league). It’s clear virtually no team has perfected the art of identifying these rare players in the draft.
According to Bleacher Report, only 3 out of the 57 (5.3%) quarterbacks drafted in the first round between 1986 and 2010 became All-Pro players (the best of the best), which was the smallest percentage of any position in football. Patrick Mahomes, one of the best QBs in the league, was drafted with the 10th pick in 2017, eight picks after Mitchell Trubisky, a quarterback who is destined for a career of sitting on the bench. In last year’s draft, the Panthers traded multiple picks to move up to #1, only to choose a QB who isn’t playing as well as the QB picked at #2.
Some teams have had success going against this drafting model. The 49ers are one of the best teams in the league, despite having a ‘Mr. Irrelevant’ as their starting QB (a player who was selected with the last pick in the draft). The Niners are paying him much less than what other teams are paying for quarterbacks with similar talent levels, and a fraction of what the top QBs are earning. This has allowed them to beef up nearly every other key position on the team with top talent.
Another example is Seattle’s own 2013 Seahawks, who won their only Super Bowl while having a starting QB still on his rookie contract. By paying Russell Wilson a low salary, the rest of the team was built with considerable salary cap space, leading to resounding success. Although Wilson wasn’t as good in 2013 as he would become a few years later, he succeeded because of the players around him.
The Seahawks gave Wilson a huge contract a few seasons after winning the Super Bowl, and the talent around him dropped off considerably because of it. In 2022, he was traded to the Broncos for a plethora of draft picks, and he hasn’t played up to expectations in Denver.
The Russell Wilson trade worked out for the Seahawks on various levels: his successor, Geno Smith, has been solid on a much smaller contract, and they have been able to incur a multitude of young talent through the draft. However, now the only position holding them back from becoming a top team in the NFL is their quarterback. In order to rise above the median, the Seahawks will need to acquire a great QB in the coming seasons, unless they want to fall into the endless cycle of mediocrity so many teams currently find themselves in.
